IMF：今年MENA石油出口国非碳氢化合物活动将拖累GDP增长-全球资讯

中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带5月4日报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）本周表示，作为中东和北非（MENA）石油出口经济体增长驱动力的非碳氢化合物活动将在2023年减缓其国内生产总值（GDP）的增长。

中东和北非地区石油出口国预计GDP将集体增长3.7%，由于充足的流动性、持续的改革势头和私人投资的迅速加速，零售和服务业的积极势头得以维持，部分抵消了主要贸易伙伴增长缓慢的影响。

(资料图片仅供参考)

该行在其中东和中亚经济展望报告中表示，向非石油收入来源的转变在石油减产中表现得很明显。欧佩克+已将该集团的日减产量限制在200万桶，自2022年11月至2023年12月生效。欧佩克+所属的8个国家在4月2日进一步表示，他们将在去年达成集体减产协议的基础上削减产量。欧佩克成员国阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特和阿联酋以及欧佩克盟友哈萨克斯坦、阿曼和产能大国随后也陆续宣布减产，这意味着从5月到12月，日产量将减少164.9万桶。

IMF将中东和北非地区2022年的实际GDP增长预测上调至5.3%，由于石油出口国巴林、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋以及石油进口国约旦、毛里塔尼亚、摩洛哥和突尼斯的增长高于预期。但国际货币基金组织对2023年提出了不同的设想。

这家总部位于华盛顿的机构表示，中东和北非地区石油出口国的实际GDP增长预计将从2022年的5.7%放缓至2023年的3.1%（并在2024年大致保持这一速度），因为大多数石油出口国增长的主要驱动力将转向非碳氢化合物活动，这反映了减产的效力。

国际货币基金组织预计，2023年和2024年的石油现货均价分别为每桶74.2美元和70美元，低于2022年10月的85.5美元和80.2美元。该机构补充称，石油期货曲线显示，到2028年，油价将跌至每桶62.70美元。

据IMF称，高加索和中亚的经济体预计今年将放缓至4.3%，2024年将反弹至4.5%。

能源价格对家庭和经济的影响

据报告称，尽管预计油价将下跌，但家庭的能源成本仍然很高。在短期内，在财政空间允许的情况下，各国应优先考虑有针对性的临时支持，并提供现金转移支付，以保护最弱势群体免受居高不下的能源和食品价格的影响。

在宏观层面，IMF建议石油出口经济体“谨慎管理石油收入，避免扩大经常性支出，提高预算透明度”。并补充道，财政努力应通过继续调动非石油收入，通过改革提高税收效率和工资账单合理化，来应对气候变化、能源转型和经济多样化带来的挑战。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Economies of MENA Oil Exporters Set to Dip This Year: IMF

A shift to non-hydrocarbon activities as the driver of growth in oil-exporting economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is poised to slow down their gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said this week.

MENA oil exporters are forecast to log a collective 3.7 percent increase in GDP “as the positive momentum in the retail and service sectors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) is sustained thanks to abundant liquidity, continued reform momentum, and rapid acceleration of private investment (Saudi Arabia), partially offsetting the impact of slow growth in major trading partners”.

The shift to non-oil revenue sources is evident in oil production cuts, the lender said in its economic outlook report for the Middle East and Central Asia. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) has set a group output curb of two million barrels per day (bpd) effective November 2022 to December 2023. Eight OPEC+ nations further said April 2 they will trim output on top of the collective rollback agreed on last year. The separate announcements by OPEC members Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi and the United Arab Emirates and OPEC allies Kazakhstan, Oman and the largger producer mean a combined reduction of 1.649 million bpd from May to December.

The IMF upgraded its real GDP growth projection for the MENA region for 2022 to 5.3 percent due to higher-than-expected growth in oil exporters Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as oil importers Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. But the IMF presented a different scenario for 2023.

“Real GDP growth for MENA oil exporters is expected to slow from 5.7 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent in 2023 (and to broadly maintain that pace in 2024) as the main driver of growth in most oil exporters shifts to nonhydrocarbon activities, reflecting agreed oil production cuts”, the Washington-based agency said.

For Central Asia and the Caucasus, a decline in oil prices is likely to drag down current account balances for oil exporters in the region by 5.4 percent of GDP on average. The IMF projected average petroleum spot prices at $74.2 a barrel in 2023 and $70 in 2024, down from $85.5 and $80.2 in October 2022 respectively. “Oil futures curves point to prices decreasing toward $62.70 by 2028”, it added.

Economies in Caucasus and Central Asian are expected to decelerate to 4.3 percent this year before rebounding to 4.5 percent in 2024, according to the IMF.

Energy Price Implications on Households, Economies

While oil prices are predicted to fall, the cost of energy has remained heavy for households, the report said.

“In the near term, and where fiscal space permits, countries should prioritize targeted and temporary support, with cash transfers to protect the most vulnerable from still-high energy and food prices”, it said.

At the macro-level, the IMF recommended oil exporting economies “manage oil revenue carefully, avoid expanding current expenditures, and improve budget transparency”.

“Fiscal efforts should address the challenges posed by climate change, the energy transition, and economic diversification by continuing non-oil revenue mobilization with reforms to increase the efficiency of tax collections and wage bill rationalization”, it added.

（责任编辑：黄振 审核：蒋文娟 ）

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